In the previous eight chapters of his epistle to the Romans (chapters 1-8), Paul has finished presenting his treatise that salvation is receivable on the scheme of grace through faith (rather than on the scheme of mere Jewish ethnicity or Law-keeping). That particular thesis had some ramifications for Israel: it meant that many Jews, because they were not embracing salvation through the scheme of faith in Jesus, but were relying on their Jewish ethnicity or on their keeping of Moses' Law for righteousness, were missing out on experiencing the promised salvation.
As you can imagine, some believers at Rome may have had some issues with that, thinking that God's promises to Israel may have somehow failed, or that God may even have been unjust to exclude Jews because they weren't embracing the way of faith.
Paul now addresses those concerns, in chapters 9-11.
1 I say the truth in Christ, I lie not, my conscience also bearing me witness in the Holy Ghost,
2 That I have great heaviness and continual sorrow in my heart.
3 For I could wish that myself were accursed from Christ for my brethren, my kinsmen according to the flesh:
Paul's topic in the following three chapters is all to do with some specific concerns which his readers may have had regarding the ramifications of the Gospel for Jews.
[Note:- Paul wasn't directly addressing the question which Calvin and Armenius debated centuries later. Rather, Paul was writing some explanations specific to the question of where natural Israel fits with the Gospel of salvation through faith.]
4 Who are Israelites; to whom pertaineth the adoption, and the glory, and the covenants, and the giving of the law, and the service of God, and the promises;
5 Whose are the fathers, and of whom as concerning the flesh Christ came, who is over all, God blessed for ever. Amen.
6 Not as though the word of God hath taken none effect. For they are not all Israel, which are of Israel:
The fact that the first-century believers at Rome were observing many Jews missing-out on experiencing the promised salvation, did not mean that God's Word (God's promises, the Scriptures of the Prophets) have failed - because not every ethnic Jew was considered to be a true Jew, in the spiritual purposes of God.
7 Neither, because they are the seed of Abraham, are they all children: but, In Isaac shall thy seed be called.
Not every natural descendant of Abraham was deemed by the Scriptures to be a true child of Abraham, in the Scriptural, covenantal, spiritual sense, in God's purposes and promises.
8 That is, They which are the children of the flesh, these are not the children of God: but the children of the promise are counted for the seed.
The Scriptures declared that God's purpose would revolve not around natural descent from Abraham, but around a different criteria - a criteria of God's own choosing and promise.
9 For this is the word of promise, At this time will I come, and Sarah shall have a son.
Paul cites a Scriptural precedent of God revolving His plans, not around mere ethnicity, but rather on the basis of His own set criteria and promise.
10 And not only this; but when Rebecca also had conceived by one, even by our father Isaac;
We now have yet another example of God revolving His plans around a criteria of His own choosing and promise, rather than automatic upon ethnicity or descent.
11 (For the children being not yet born, neither having done any good or evil, that the purpose of God according to election might stand, not of works, but of him that calleth;)
God declared an outcome, election, calling and purpose ahead of time, before the works were even done yet which were factors in those outcomes.
12 It was said unto her, The elder shall serve the younger.
This was the outcome of the behavioural traits which the twins were already displaying in their mother's womb, as they strove together. Rebecca asked God what these traits meant. God then told her ahead of time what the outcome of those traits would become after the boys were born and lived and their descendants after them.
The outcome was due to their behaviours and God's response to their behaviours - and all of this was declared ahead of time.
13 As it is written, Jacob have I loved, but Esau have I hated.
The full outcome was that God loved one (and his descendants) but hated the other. This statement was made many centuries after the twins had both lived and died and their descendants.
Similarly, God declared through the Prophets ahead of time, that Jesus would come as the Saviour, and that all who believe in Him would be saved while all who don't believe would miss out. The present outcome in Israel - that some were believing while others were not - that some are experiencing salvation while others are not - has transpired exactly according to Scriptural prediction and principle.
14 What shall we say then? Is there unrighteousness with God? God forbid.
Paul makes the point that this is not to be misunderstood in a way that makes God out to be unrighteous.
15 For he saith to Moses, I will have mercy on whom I will have mercy, and I will have compassion on whom I will have compassion.
God showed mercy on believing Jews, as He said believing would be the criteria; and has withheld the experience of salvation from unbelievers, as He said He would. Paul has written in the previous chapters that the criteria upon which God has chosen to show mercy is "by grace through faith" rather than through mere Jewish ethnicity nor through Law-keeping.
16 So then it is not of him that willeth, nor of him that runneth, but of God that sheweth mercy.
God's purposes revolve around the criteria which He Himself sets, not the criteria which man sets or thinks. That criteria, Paul has already established and is now defending, is "by grace through faith" rather than through Jewish ethnicity alone nor through Law-keeping.
17 For the scripture saith unto Pharaoh, Even for this same purpose have I raised thee up, that I might shew my power in thee, and that my name might be declared throughout all the earth.
Pharaoh was long previously worthy of judgement, but God delayed Pharaoh's judgment, left him alive and even raised him up to display His own power. Similarly, God delayed ethnic Israel's long due judgement, preserving the polity of the nation, that He might show His power in the nation.
18 Therefore hath he mercy on whom he will have mercy, and whom he will he hardeneth.
He shows mercy on those Jews who believe in Jesus, as He willed to; and those who don't believe, become hardened and even believe a delusion, as a consequence of their unbelief.
19 Thou wilt say then unto me, Why doth he yet find fault? For who hath resisted his will?
20 Nay but, O man, who art thou that repliest against God? Shall the thing formed say to him that formed it, Why hast thou made me thus?
We can't complain that God set His own criteria, despite its ramifications for unbelieving Jews.
21 Hath not the potter power over the clay, of the same lump to make one vessel unto honour, and another unto dishonour?
God decided the criteria that would deem one vessel to be honoured while another dishonoured - and that criteria, Paul explained, is by grace through faith, or else unbelief.
22 What if God, willing to shew his wrath, and to make his power known, endured with much longsuffering the vessels of wrath fitted to destruction:
Unbelievers and the wicked were already worthy of judgment, but God left the polity of Israel in existence in order to show His power in them.
23 And that he might make known the riches of his glory on the vessels of mercy, which he had afore prepared unto glory,
He prepared the vessels of mercy by initiating His plan to save those who believe. It is the believers whom He has prepared for glory - not necessarily all ethnic Jews or Law-keepers.
24 Even us, whom he hath called, not of the Jews only, but also of the Gentiles?
Even Gentiles who believe are the called, the prepared.
25 As he saith also in Osee, I will call them my people, which were not my people; and her beloved, which was not beloved.
26 And it shall come to pass, that in the place where it was said unto them, Ye are not my people; there shall they be called the children of the living God.
Gentiles are included.
27 Esaias also crieth concerning Israel, Though the number of the children of Israel be as the sand of the sea, a remnant shall be saved:
28 For he will finish the work, and cut it short in righteousness: because a short work will the Lord make upon the earth.
29 And as Esaias said before, Except the Lord of Sabaoth had left us a seed, we had been as Sodoma, and been made like unto Gomorrha.
The Prophets already foresaw that not all ethnic Jews would be saved. Therefore the Gospel does not mean God's promises to Israel had somehow failed. It was foreseen all along that faith alone would be the means of grace.
30 What shall we say then? That the Gentiles, which followed not after righteousness, have attained to righteousness, even the righteousness which is of faith.
31 But Israel, which followed after the law of righteousness, hath not attained to the law of righteousness.
32 Wherefore? Because they sought it not by faith, but as it were by the works of the law. For they stumbled at that stumblingstone;
33 As it is written, Behold, I lay in Sion a stumblingstone and rock of offence: and whosoever believeth on him shall not be ashamed.
The Prophets foresaw that faith - or the lack of faith - would be the sole criteria.
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