Can China Prevail Over America?

Some are predicting that America's economy shall collapse and China's shall prevail.

The reason I bother to answer such claims is because many are using these predictions to find fault with capitalism as an economic system, favouring forms of socialism or even communism. As a result, many voted for Leftist parties in recent American and Australian elections instead of voting for parties with traditional Christian values.

Another reason I take issue with it is because some are even publishing that these predictions are a sure sign of the end of the world. Lots of valuable time and resources are spent publishing and following such claims.

My feeling is that China's continued economic growth depends on a strong American economy for two reasons:

One, because China's recent economic growth has depended highly on its exports to America; and

Two, because China's growth has depended on its export around the world of products that have an international market which exists only because of America or because of American companies or products.

So if America's economy collapses into a subsistence economy, China's would soon follow. China's is a dependent economy - it is not a stand-alone economy.

11.63% of China's foreign trade is directly with America - but China's biggest exports to other countries are only possible because American products have created an international market for those items.

One example is China's export of accessories for electronics and computers. Many of these products relate indirectly to American companies and inventions, e.g., Microsoft and Apple computers.

Therefore if America's economy collapses and reverts back to an agricultural economy, there will no longer be a growing worldwide demand for many of China's major exports (including electronics and computers and accessories for American-made products or companies).

Despite currently ranking first in the world in exports (after the EU), China already ranks only 102nd in the world in GDP per capita - so imagine where China would rank in GDP per capita if it loses the market for its biggest exports around the world!

China's largest import from America is agriculture (food). China would still have to import food from America - the world can do without electronics, but China can't do without food! So China's balance of trade with America would therefore soon go into deficit and America's into surplus. Millions of people currently employed in China's manufacturing industries would therefore have to revert back to primary produce (farming).

So if America's economy collapses into a subsistence economy, China's economy would soon follow. And America's economy would still be the strongest of the two!

(China's GNP = $7.96 trillion (2008). China's GDP = $4.33 trillion. GDP is a better economic indicator than GNP. China's world trade = $2.56 trillion. 59% of China's economy depends on foreign trade. China's trade with USA = $298 billion. 11.63% of China's foreign trade is direct trade with USA. It's difficult to put a figure on the proportion of China's exports to all other countries that relate to a market that is made possible only because of America, or American companies, or American products - but it could amount to hundreds of billions of dollars in my estimation.

It's up to those who believe China could prevail above a collapsed American economy to provide statistics that support such a view.)

I think private property and freedom (capitalism) are still the way to prosperity. I think Christians should still be voting for traditional Christian values. And I don't think it can be asserted that one's economic forecast for China must be a sure sign of the end of the world. Jesus can return at ANY time.

Anyway, we shall see - it's all up to God's will, isn't it.

Sources:

http://www.google.com/publicdata?ds=wb-wdi&met=ny_gnp_mktp_pp_cd&idim=country%3ACHN&dl=en&hl=en&q=china+gnp

http://www.google.com/publicdata?ds=wb-wdi&met=ny_gdp_mktp_cd&idim=country%3ACHN&dl=en&hl=en&q=china+gdp

http://www.factcheck.org/askfactcheck/what_is_the_difference_between_gdp_and.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_exports

http://www.suite101.com/content/china-trade-statistics-2009-a205058

http://www.suite101.com/content/china-trade-statistics-2009-a205058

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_%28PPP%29_per_capita